No one seems to be writing opinion pieces quite the way I would, so I decided to do it myself.

The name? Taverns are places where one goes to discuss the interesting events and things in the world, so this is my tavern.

I will offer my views on politics, economics, and whatever else strikes my fancy.
I will occasionally publish the entire article from another journal for purposes of causing discussion.

 

Problems in Iraq

I am a member of the "We broke it. We have to fix it." view on Iraq. First and foremost, we need to keep in mind that early exit means retreat or defeat.

We cannot leave until Iraq is a nation which is strong enough to sustain itself without outside support. We also need to leave an Iraq that is strong enough not to fall prey to a takeover by an organization like the Taliban or al Queda which would be a threat to it neighbors and to us. If Iraq does not also have some form of representative government before we leave, then we must consider our actions there to be at least a partial failure. Wesley Clark has offered one view of what should be done to achieve success in Iraq.

The Philadelphia Inquirer on Nov 13th printed a really pessimistic report based on a new, top-secret CIA assessment of our current position in Iraq.

A new, top-secret CIA report from Iraq warns that growing numbers of Iraqis are concluding the U.S.-led coalition can be defeated and are supporting the insurgents.
The report paints a bleak picture of the political and security situation in Iraq and cautions that the U.S.-led drive to rebuild the country as a democracy could collapse unless corrective actions are taken immediately.

The News story describes our current strategy as:

Accelerating a restoration of Iraqi self-rule, speeding security-force recruiting, and intensifying a U.S. counterinsurgency campaign form the crux of a new U.S. strategy to crush the insurgents, consolidate the support of ordinary Iraqis for democracy-building efforts, and reduce the U.S. military presence.

But it also points out:

The CIA analysis suggests U.S. policy in Iraq has reached a turning point, as the Bush administration moves to escalate the war against the guerrillas and accelerate the transfer of political power to Iraqis.

Both options are potentially risky.

An escalation of the military campaign could cause more civilian casualties and drive more Iraqis to the insurgents' side.

At the same time, the CIA assessment warns that none of the postwar Iraqi political institutions and leaders have shown an ability to govern the country or even preside over drafting a constitution or holding an election.

NPR this morning reports that the US military is conducting large-scale efforts to attack likely insurgents as a result of the bombing of the Italian police station yesterday. Paul Bremer's sudden and surprising trip to Washington to talk to President Bush indicates that there may well be a major change in how the US will handle Iraqi governance.

The problem for the White House is that if things continue to go the way the CIA report indicates into next year, Bush's reelection chances will be damaged. A major concern for Americans and Iraqis right now is that Karl rove may decide that Bush's reelection depends on our early exit from Iraq, and he may believe that a major reduction of US troops in Iraq can be spun as success in the Iraq War.

The alternative is to decide if we are willing to pay the price that retreat or defeat will require.


posted by Richard at 7:51 AM