No one seems to be writing opinion pieces quite the way I would, so I decided to do it myself.

The name? Taverns are places where one goes to discuss the interesting events and things in the world, so this is my tavern.

I will offer my views on politics, economics, and whatever else strikes my fancy.
I will occasionally publish the entire article from another journal for purposes of causing discussion.

 

Why Bomb Madrid?

The bombings in Madrid were another example of the horror of terrorism. Who did it is one unresolved question. There is not yet a clear decision between the possibilities that the attack was an al Qaida attack or an ETA attack. I have seen no discussion of that seems likely to me, that it was an attack primarily by ETA personnel using al Qaida resources for joint purposes. Additional facts will clarify this issue, I have no doubt, and I could be wrong.

What is clear to me is that the journalists writing at present are almost certainly wrong about who did it, certainly in the details, and as a result the reasons for the attack are not currently being written about with any clarity. Some of this comes from people who are anthropomorphizing the organizations involved, attempting to treat them as rational individuals rather than as organizations that rational but limited People use for their own purposes. At the same time, propaganda seems to me to be overwhelming facts at the present.

Assuming that it was an al Qaida operation, a lot of the reasons currently being presented as to why al Qaida might have attacked a target in Spain seem to revolve around blaming the Spanish government for its support of the US invasion of Iraq. Both al Qaida and supporters of the Bush administrations?ƒ‚’ irrational attack on Iraq when it was not in fact a real threat to the US have strong reasons for pushing the propaganda that the attack was the result of Spanish decisions to support the Iraq War.

I think that is mistaking propaganda for fact. While propaganda is a major tool in modern warfare, it is a mistake to base actions to defeat the enemy on propaganda rather than reality. If the reasons given in propaganda for actions are not true, then reactions based on the propaganda will be ineffective.

I think a better view of the motivation of the perpetrators (if they were al Qaida) would be provided by Organization Theory. Organization Theory would suggest that at the top, al Qaida has a few leaders who provide the rationale for the organization both to recruit support and followers, and they then attempt to use that organization thus created to achieve their (in my opinion) messianic goals for their brand of Islam.

But below top leadership is a large layer of middle management. Middle management is responsible for seeing that the organization continues to do what it has done most successfully in the past. The motivation of most middle managers is to keep the processes of the organization functioning, not to concern themselves with what those processes succeed or fail to do outside the organization. Relations with the world outside the organization are the responsibility of top management, and time spent by middle managers on such concerns is time taken away from ensuring the functioning of the organization itself.

I think k that the reasons for the attack on Madrid were more middle-management reasons than actual strategic top management reasons. The only strategic reason involved is probably the fact that there has not been a successful al qauda operation in a long time.

The organizational linkage between the goals of top management and of the actions of middle management are what we describe as methods of control. Management in general has three methods of control available to ensure that those further down the chain in the organization do those things that the leaders want done. They can (A.) provide resources for approved operations and evaluate the outcomes of such activities, rewarding those which are what they want with further resources, or (B.) they can observe the operations of the subordinates, using a model that if behavior X is expected to lead to outcome Y, then we want you doing more of behavior X and less of B, so they correct your behavior when you deviate from behavior X. This is the method most used in training.

The third method of control is (C.) social control. They can select likely candidates, bringing such people into groups and working with them over time, until they feel they understand what the people brought in will do in any given situation. They also get rid of those who do not fit the group. After an extended period of such socialization (ten to twenty years is not too much) they can send those people out and trust them to use their own judgment.

Method (B.) requires some form of protected sanctuary for training, such as was previously provided by the Taliban in Afghanistan. That is because it is the method most open to disruption by the opposition. So al Qaida rather clearly uses mostly the first and third control methods at this time, with emphasis on the method of socialization. The result is a lot of terrorists out there who have been trained and socialized to conduct terror. It is what they are very good at, and it is what they do. They are also mostly middle managers. They concern themselves with getting things done efficiently, but have little training in the forms of strategy appropriate to top management who decides what actions will be the most effective externally. But these peop[le are mostly independent operators, also. To get them to act generally requires negotiation rather than orders, and they will often have their own reasons for doing things that are different from those of top management.

It is much easier to train managers to conduct a specific set of actions (like acts of terror) than it is to teach them enough about society in general to understand what the long-term results of such actions are likely to be. Most people work to do the job they are given efficiently, but do not have the training, skills, or personal interest in deciding what actions will accomplish the goals of the overall organizationn most effectively.

The result is that most terrorists will focus on what potential targets are available and what tools can be used to get them. They simply assume that their normal operations will be effective.

In addition, the fact that a target is likely to be highly publicized will be a lot more important to the decision to go after it than will its' long-term effects. As in most decisions, those results that can be easily documented (like publicity potential in this case) are a lot more likely to be chosen than those which depend a lot of subjective judgment and experience. Younger managers with less experience simply can't apply judgment and experience, since they don't have enough of either to do so relaibly.

The result of applying those ideas in the Madrid bombing situation is that it is very likely that someone saw a chance to get a lot of publicity, and found that they could do so with the resources at hand. Whether those resources included the ETA has not yet been determined - but I'll bet they did. A joint operation fits the al Qaida MO and the timing is such that factions, probably younger managers, of the ETA who feel they are losing were very likely easily motivated to use resources provided by al Qaidaa.

Tying the action to the Spanish government support of the invasion of Iraq is simply the propaganda arm attempting to use an already planned operation for its effect on the Arab street opinion - or the propaganda arm of the Bush administration using the attack to motivate its base.

Counterterrorism actions, to be effective, need to be based on the actual motivation of the terrorist participants, not on the often contorted and self-justifying 'motivations' they try to sell as propaganda. I don't think the media is even trying to go after the real reasons why Madrid was selected and conducted. They are lost in the propaganda put out by all of the major organizations which were either involved or would like to use the bombing for their own purposes. What is clear is that the propaganda we are all being fed right now is almost pure and unadulterated crap.

posted by Richard at 9:30 PM