No one seems to be writing opinion pieces quite the way I would, so I decided to do it myself.

The name? Taverns are places where one goes to discuss the interesting events and things in the world, so this is my tavern.

I will offer my views on politics, economics, and whatever else strikes my fancy.
I will occasionally publish the entire article from another journal for purposes of causing discussion.

 
Fourth Generation War

The following was published in Empower America 6/18/2003
http://www.empoweramerica.org/stories/storyReader$801
by Dr. George Friedman
The title is Guerrilla War.

(An excerpt follows)
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There is another level on which the guerrilla war intersects strategy. The United States invaded Iraq in order to be perceived as a decisive military power and to set the stage for military operations elsewhere. Guerrilla warfare inevitably undermines the regional perception of U.S. power -- justly or not -- while creating the impression that the United States is limited in what it can do in the region militarily.
Thus, the United States is in a tough spot. It cannot withdraw from Iraq and therefore must fight. But it must fight in such a way that avoids four things:

1. It cannot fight a war that alienates the general Iraqi populace sufficiently to generate recruits for the guerrillas and undermine the occupation.

2. It cannot lose control of the countryside; this could destabilize the entire occupation.

3. It cannot allow the guerrilla operation to undermine its ability to project forces elsewhere.

4. It cannot be allowed to extend the length of the conflict to such an extent that the U.S. public determines that the cost is not worth the prize. The longer the war, the clearer the definition of the prize must be.

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There is a lot more. But it looks to me like the US has walked into all four traps that Dr. Friedman delineated above.

posted by Richard at 10:55 AM