How to win the battles and lose the war
The Russian reaction to the terrorist attack on School No 1 in Beslan is taking shape. This is continued action in two wars that have together lasted over ten years, and which Putin used to show that he was “tough on the Chechnyans” when he first took office. In moves the Christian Science Monitor article characterizes as “bankrupt”, Putin is following the Bush counter-terrorism actions as demonstrated after 9/11. According to an article in the Christian Science Monitor today :
President Vladimir Putin refuses to meet with top Chechen separatist leaders, whom he holds responsible for a wave of terror that includes two downed passenger jets, a suicide bomb in Moscow, and the hostage crisis. But analysts say that Mr. Putin may offer far broader autonomy to Chechnya, which adds up to "de facto independence."
Military officials amplified past threats on Wednesday in moves that in some ways mirror US steps after 9/11. Chief of Staff Col. Gen. Yury Baluyevsky warned of "preemptive strikes ... to liquidate terrorist bases in any region of the world." A $10 million reward is being offered for information leading to the "neutralization" of Chechen warlord Shamil Basayev and the more moderate former Chechen president Aslan Maskhadov.
The steps are meant to equate Kremlin steps with preemptive US moves. These include threats against Georgia in 2002 over Chechen rebel bases, and the killing of a former Chechen leader in a car bomb in Qatar in February. Russia denies any involvement, but two Russian security agents have been convicted in the case.
"They are saying that what's good for the goose is good for the gander: If you [in the US] can do it, we after such an attack can do it as well," says Mr. Lieven. "The military has obviously failed. [The Kremlin] is bankrupt, totally bankrupt of ideas.
"The Russians have not yet done everything that they could in terms of savagery," says Lieven. "All this talk of Russian abuses - most of [it is] true. But if you remember American strategy in Vietnam, or the French in Algeria, they cleared extensive areas of the countryside, put people behind barbed wire ... Anyone in those areas was by definition an enemy and shot on the spot."
"The Russians haven't done that yet," adds Lieven. "Another few attacks like this [and] the Russians could adopt much more ferocious measures."
Like Bush, Putin is trying to use the military to solve political and sociological problems. Chechnya is another example of the inability of pure military force to resolve such difficulties, but like Bush, Putin does not seem willing to try negotiation or other approaches for fear of appearing weak to his supporting constituency. Part of the probelm is that he terrorist have succeeded in making him appear weak, and part is the problem is that neither Bush nor Putin appear to be able to see past military force to the methods of detaching the supporters of the terrorists from the populations they claim to be fighting for.
No one will win until our leaders can learn to think in terms of humans they don’t otherwise understand or like. Until then we can plan on more terrorism.
posted by Richard at 5:07 PM
